TJ McMillen left late in Illinoisâ 31-27 loss to Duke after starting for the unavailable Brandon Henderson. Bret Bielema subsequently announced that McMillenâs foot fracture would end his season. Illinois had already needed a replacement at guard. Now it needs another.
Southern Illinois visits Saturday, Sept. 19, at 1 p.m. CT on Peacock. Illinois has a 99.3% win probability in the interactive guide, with the calculation explained in the methodology. Expect a win; watch for an offense that can keep its quarterback protected and give its backs room to work. No outside result carries enough benefit to warrant a rooting recommendation this week.
Katin Houser threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns against Duke, with Collin Dixon catching 11 passes for 166 yards and all three scores. Illinois has allowed no sacks through two games. Those are substantial things for the next line combination to preserve. But CaâLil Valentine and Aidan Laughery combined for only 93 rushing yards on 28 carries against Duke. More dependable gains from those backs would give Illinois another way to sustain possessions when the passing game stalls.
Barry Lunney Jr. has improved Illinoisâ scoring average in each of his first four seasons as offensive coordinator. Now Houser and a rebuilt offensive line must sustain that progress in his established offense. His offense still has to finish. Against Duke, Illinoisâ final three possessions ended on downs, Houserâs interception and downs again. With Dixon catching all three touchdown passes against Duke, watch whether Houser can find other receivers for scores against Southern Illinois.
Southern Illinois gives ball security particular relevance. The Salukis have forced eight turnovers in three games, already approaching their 12 from all of 2025. With Illinois adjusting at guard, watch whether the blockers give Houser time to make decisions and whether he protects the ball when a play breaks down. Turnovers are how the visitors can acquire extra possessions despite the lopsided forecast.
The defense has a different transition underway. Bobby Hauck arrived this year to install his aggressive 3-3-5, and Duke exposed execution problems within it. Nate Sheppard gained 147 yards rushing and 41 receiving, then converted the fourth-and-1 that let Duke exhaust the clock. After the loss, Matthew Bailey identified leverage, tackling fundamentals and communication as areas needing improvement. Southern Illinois quarterback DJ Williams returned from a knee injury against SEMO and rushed for four touchdowns while throwing another. Illinois fans should want defenders to contain his running lanes and finish tackles; pressure that lets him escape will not solve the problem.
Duke ended Illinoisâ 10-game nonconference winning streak. After a program-record 19 victories across 2024-25, fans have reason to expect more than survival against Saturdayâs visitor. Better blocking and tackling would address the actual shortcomings of the Duke loss before Illinois travels to Ohio State next week.
The lineup detail to follow is at guard. The Sept. 15 projection listed Brandon Hansen on the left and Dezmond Schuster on the right. Henderson and Maika Matelau have been described as possible returns for Southern Illinois, with neither confirmed. Watch who actually lines up, and whether that pair can open running lanes while keeping Houser upright.