Houston scored touchdowns on its first 11 possessions in Saturday's 77-6 win over Southern. Three of those touchdown drives followed Southern turnovers. The Cougars kept finishing what they started; Friday brings a much harder opponent to stop them.
No. 22 Houston visits No. 13 Texas Tech for their Big 12 opener Friday, September 18, at 7 p.m. Central on FOX. Houston went 6-0 on the road in 2025, a reasonable foundation for expecting composed football away from home. But Tech has won seven straight meetings, and the Cougars' first trip of 2026 takes them to a place where the Red Raiders have won nine consecutive home games while allowing no more than 18 points in any of them.
Fan Watch gives Houston a 9.5% chance to win. An upset would put a conference victory on Houston's record and a loss on Tech's. The model gives the Cougars a 9.5% chance to reach the Big 12 title game if they win, versus 1% if they lose. No outside result carries enough benefit to recommend this week. The interactive guide has the probabilities, with the calculation explained in the methodology.
The most revealing work belongs to the backs and tight end filling the roles Dean Connors and Tanner Koziol left behind. Against Oregon State, Makhi Hughes and Re'Shaun Sanford II combined for 173 rushing yards, while Patrick Overmyer caught six passes for 84 yards. All three scored against Southern, though Hughes and Sanford needed only 12 carries between them. They've supplied production twice; now Houston needs them to sustain drives when the running lanes get smaller.
Tech has held seven consecutive opponents below 100 rushing yards. Yet Oregon State threw for 417 yards against the Red Raiders last week, with Tech needing a touchdown pass with 6:31 remaining to take the lead in a 35-24 win. Houston fans should want enough early-down yardage from Hughes and Sanford to keep the passing game from becoming predictable, then opportunities for Overmyer when Weigman throws. Tech's recent opponents have found far more room through the air than on the ground.
Returning quarterback Conner Weigman completed nine of 12 passes for 120 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against Southern before leaving with Houston in control. Tech's run defense could force Weigman to throw much more Friday. Ronnell McLain started on the offensive line against Southern, and neither Houston quarterback took a sack. Drew Terrill did not appear in Southern's game participation record. Whoever lines up Friday must give Weigman time to exploit the passing opportunities.
Freshman reserve Keisean Henderson also led four touchdown drives in relief, throwing two scores and running for another. Houston gained an encouraging look at its quarterback depth with the game already under control; handling a close conference game remains a different demand.
On defense, Houston is trying to preserve the standards Austin Armstrong's first season established. Houston ranked 27th nationally in red-zone defense, 38th against the run and 40th on third down. Southern managed minus-6 rushing yards and one conversion in 13 third downs, but never reached the red zone. Oregon State had scored on all three trips there against Houston. When Tech gets close, forcing a field goal would address something the Southern rout couldn't test.
Houston can bring last year's road composure into this game without reproducing last week's scoring pace. A win would deliver something much older than either benchmark. It would be the Cougars' first victory in Lubbock since their 51-35 win in 1990.