Ashlynd Barker intercepted SMUâs Kevin Jennings with 6:33 remaining. Florida State then lost eight yards in three plays and punted. SMU answered with a 71-yard drive and the winning field goal, converting third-and-10 along the way. The final sequence left FSU with a painfully specific repair to make. Keep the ball after taking it away.
Florida State visits No. 10 Alabama on Saturday, September 19, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Fan Watch gives the Seminoles an 11% chance to win. An upset would be a substantial surprise; no other game this week offers FSU much help. The interactive guide and methodology have the numbers behind that outlook.
FSU has a recent memory worth bringing along. In last yearâs 31-17 victory over Alabama, the Seminoles outrushed the Tide 230-87 and scored four rushing touchdowns. When Alabama cut the lead to 24-17 in the fourth quarter, FSU answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive, converting fourth-and-one at its own 34. That response under pressure is the standard to chase Saturday. Run effectively, then make the play that keeps the possession alive.
The offense has changed hands since then. Gus Malzahn retired after coordinating and calling plays in 2025; Tim Harris Jr. became coordinator, and Mike Norvell resumed play-calling. Norvell now has to connect the running game to enough passing production to sustain drives. Against SMU, Ousmane Kromah rushed for 116 yards. Ashton Daniels added 71 on the ground but completed 12 of 23 passes for only 125 yards. Those performances supplied a reason to believe FSU can move the ball, without establishing that it can keep moving it.
Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy combined for just four catches and 43 yards against SMU. Getting those two involved would give Daniels another way to extend possessions when the run does not get FSU to the marker. The Seminoles converted only two of 15 third downs and scored seven points from four takeaway possessions; three of those possessions ended in punts. Alabama makes that shortcoming especially relevant. The Tide have allowed just one third-down conversion in 23 attempts through two games. Watch whether FSU can create manageable third downs, then actually finish them.
Last yearâs win also belongs to a substantially different roster. FSUâs spring notes listed six returning starters and 50 newcomers among 98 players. Those newcomers have to supply much of the improvement as Norvellâs seventh season follows a 5-7 finish and an 11th-place ACC forecast. Running effectively against SMU was a start; sustaining possessions and getting defensive stops would give FSU more reason to believe a winning season is within reach.
The defense needs ordinary stops, too. FSU allowed SMU 585 yards and recorded no sacks despite generating four takeaways. Another interception would be welcome; asking takeaways to compensate for that much yardage is a precarious way to stay close.
If FSU gets another late extra possession Saturday, watch what Norvellâs offense does with the next three plays. After Barkerâs interception against SMU, it went backward. This time, the Seminoles need to earn another set of downs and give themselves a chance to finish the drive.