Nate Sheppard caught two of Walker Eget’s three touchdown passes in Duke’s 31-27 win at Illinois. He also rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown, then converted the fourth-and-1 that let Duke run out the clock. Duke could score through the air while still putting the decisive carry in Sheppard’s hands.
Eget completed 15 of 21 passes for 206 yards without an interception at Illinois, according to the game’s box score. Against Tulane, he had managed 131 yards and no touchdown on 13-of-26 passing. That gives Duke something specific to build on when Stanford visits Saturday, September 19, at 4 p.m. ET on The CW Network.
Duke has an 87% chance to win. A victory supplies an ACC standings win and leaves its modeled conference championship game probability at 5.8%; a loss leaves it at 1.5%. The interactive guide has the full numbers and methodology.
Kent State at Ohio State: root for Ohio State
Saturday, September 19, noon ET, FOX.
Take the routine Buckeyes win and save your energy for Duke. Ohio State has a 100% chance to win; Duke’s playoff probability is 1.7% in that branch versus 0% in the Kent State upset branch, a difference of 1.7 percentage points. Duke benefits through national playoff competition. The favorable result is already overwhelmingly likely, so it offers little reason to organize Saturday around this game.
Give Eget more places to go
Eget has already thrown for 473 yards and three touchdowns against Stanford, playing for San Jose State in 2025. There is also a more recent opening to attack. Miami passed for 428 yards and five touchdowns against Stanford without allowing a sack.
Neither performance promises a repeat. Duke, meanwhile, entered this season after losing all three starting wide receivers. Eget’s old Stanford numbers came with different teammates; Saturday’s opportunity depends on the connections he can build here.
Jonah Burton supplied four catches for 76 yards and a touchdown at Illinois, and Jeremiah Hasley added 53 receiving yards. But Jared Richardson again finished without a catch, while Javen Nicholas again was absent from the participation list. Getting another receiver involved would give Stanford another player to account for when it commits defenders to Sheppard.
The larger championship defense deserves some belief. Duke entered 2026 with only 10 returning starters, and its Illinois win ended the Illini’s 10-game nonconference winning streak. A roster replacing that much experience has now delivered a substantial road result. The defending ACC champion still has to turn that into conference wins.
After replacing all four starting defensive linemen, Duke needs its new front to make quarterbacks uncomfortable earlier in possessions. Jonathan Patke’s 2025 defense produced 24 takeaways but allowed 276.8 passing yards per game. At Illinois, Duke generated a late interception and two fourth-down stops, yet recorded no sacks or quarterback hurries while conceding 271 passing yards and three touchdowns. Root for pressure that helps the coverage before Duke needs another late rescue.
On offense, the encouraging next step is straightforward. Let Sheppard keep commanding attention, and make Stanford pay somewhere else. Burton and Hasley can build on their Illinois production; a contribution from Richardson would broaden Eget’s options further.