Caden Pinnick ran for Washington State’s only touchdown in Seattle. He also threw two interceptions and took three sacks, and the Cougars never converted any of their 11 third downs. WSU lost the Apple Cup 24-10 to Washington, leaving WSU six days to turn one quarterback’s mobility into an offense that can sustain a drive.
Washington State visits Kansas State at 9 a.m. Pacific on Saturday, Sept. 12, on TNT. The model gives the Cougars a 37% chance to win. No other game materially affects WSU this week, so Kansas State is the only result worth tracking.
Pinnick cannot be the escape plan on every snap
Pinnick completed 16 of 25 passes for 142 yards and led WSU with 61 rushing yards on 14 carries. His full-game role settled the quarterback question, and his legs gave the offense something Kansas State must account for. They did not solve the passing, protection or possession problems around him.
The number to watch in Manhattan is not Pinnick’s rushing total. It is the distance Washington State faces on third down. Kirby Moore said after the opener that the offense took too long to establish first-down rhythm, and the resulting 0-for-11 third-down line kept asking the defense to return to the field. WSU needs early-down runs, quarterback movement and manageable throws to produce possessions rather than isolated highlights.
There is reason to believe this staff can build that kind of attack. Moore’s 2025 Missouri offense featured All-American Ahmed Hardy, while offensive coordinator Nate Miller’s Boise State unit averaged 424 yards per game. With only six days to adjust, Moore and Miller need to turn that run-capable résumé into early-down gains and manageable throws for Pinnick.
The standard does not have to be a perfect passing day. Avoiding the interceptions, getting the ball out before sacks develop and converting enough third downs to let the playbook breathe would change the feel of this offense. If Pinnick again has to scramble his way out of every bad situation, his most exciting trait will also reveal how little else is working.
Freeman’s absence would narrow the solution
Starting receiver and captain Tony Freeman injured his knee late in the first quarter of the Apple Cup. Moore initially said an update would come later in the week; by Sept. 7, Freeman was trending toward missing the Kansas State game while MRI results remained pending.
That uncertainty matters beyond losing one target. WSU produced only 242 total yards and three giveaways. Watch whether the remaining receivers can give a first-time Washington State starter simpler completions. If Freeman cannot play, the remaining receivers have to create credible short and intermediate options before Kansas State can treat every Pinnick keeper as the offense’s only dependable answer.
The defense has to make its good work last
Washington State’s defense stopped Washington twice on fourth down, including Keith Brown’s fourth-and-goal tackle at the 1, and allowed only one touchdown through three quarters. Washington then finished with touchdown drives of 75 and 68 yards in the fourth.
That split performance matters because the defense already showed it can keep WSU in a game while the offense searches for itself. It has not yet shown it can absorb that workload for four quarters. The best upset script is not a string of desperate stops followed by another quick punt; it is the defense buying time while the offense finally repays some of it.
The personnel behind that early resistance was new. Transfers Jaylen Thomas, Jeremiah Bernard and Matyus McLain all started; Thomas added three solo tackles and a quarterback hurry, Bernard made four tackles, and McLain made two tackles but committed a second-quarter roughing-the-passer penalty. Washington’s two longest completions, 44 and 35 yards, arrived in the final quarter. At Kansas State, watch whether those transfer defenders preserve the aggression without penalties and late explosive passes.
The broader roster story deserves the same restraint. WSU used 23 transfers in Moore’s debut and remained within three points with 10:15 left. That is meaningful evidence that a rebuilt group can compete together, but one close stretch cannot establish season-long cohesion. Finishing this time would say much more than merely staying nearby for three quarters again.
An upset would matter, but progress has a lower bar
The simulation gives WSU about a 9% playoff chance in the win scenario and 3% in the loss scenario; its Pac-12 championship-game chances are about 62% and 57%, respectively. An upset offers real upside, but a road loss to Kansas State would not end the conference race.
The schedule explains why a functional performance still matters so much. WSU opened at Washington, travels to Kansas State six days later and hosts Arizona in Week 4; including the opener, the Cougars play nine straight weeks before their Nov. 7 bye. There is little room for this offense to postpone its development.
Conference play will eventually supply the larger judgment. Washington State’s first rebuilt Pac-12 schedule sends it to Utah State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Texas State, with Fresno State, Boise State and Colorado State visiting Pullman before a conference-controlled flex game on Nov. 28. Kansas State does not directly alter those standings, but WSU needs to arrive at that race with more than a quarterback who can improvise and a defense that can survive for three quarters.
The interactive guide contains the full Week 2 outlook. The methodology page explains the model. Against Kansas State, look for shorter third downs, fewer possessions ruined by sacks or turnovers and a defense that remains sound in the fourth quarter. If those appear, Pinnick’s legs can become part of a functioning offense instead of its emergency exit.