Beau Pribula produced 265 total yards against NC State, and Virginia answered the Wolfpack’s only touchdown with a 23-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that consumed 12:15. That was line-driven control at its most convincing. Virginia finished with a 413-168 advantage in total yards, strong first evidence that the rebuilt roster retained the level of last season’s breakthrough.
Norfolk State at Virginia
Friday’s 7 p.m. ET game on ACC Extra is the first football meeting between Virginia and Norfolk State. The model gives the Cavaliers a 99.5% chance to win, so the score alone will reveal little unless Virginia lets it become uncomfortable.
Watch whether Virginia can shift more of the rushing load from Pribula to its running backs. Pribula completed 9 of 11 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns in his Virginia debut, but he also ran 15 times for a career-high 110 yards. Tony Elliott said that 15 carries should not become his quarterback’s regular workload and challenged the Cavaliers to keep aligning correctly and playing with humility each week.
Virginia has the personnel to answer that challenge differently. McKale Boley, Noah Josey and Drake Metcalf returned from last season’s starting offensive line, while Monroe Mills and Makilan Thomas came back after missing 2025 with injuries. Against NC State, Jekail Middlebrook led a five-back committee with 15 carries. Norfolk State should give that line and rotation room to make the rushing formula routine without repeatedly exposing Pribula.
The defense has a standard to preserve, too. Virginia finished 2025 second in the ACC in scoring defense, third in total defense and second nationally on third down. Friday should feature the same situational discipline, ending possessions and giving Norfolk State no extra chances, that supported the breakthrough.
Virginia had an open weekend after the NC State win before turning to Norfolk State. Virginia should control the game with its line, backs and defense, keeping Pribula’s legs available as an option rather than a necessity.
Louisiana at USC: root for Louisiana
This result carries a 1.6 percentage-point impact on Virginia's playoff probability.
Saturday, 11 p.m. ET, BTN. Louisiana has only a 5% chance to win, but an upset would deny No. 14 USC a victory and leave Virginia with an 8.3% modeled playoff chance, compared with 6.7% if USC wins.
Virginia’s Norfolk State matchup carries the week. Its veteran line and five-back rotation can reduce Pribula’s rushing burden while the defense preserves its third-down standard. Virginia needs both in a game the model expects it to control.