Austin Carlisle entered against Mississippi State after the deficit reached 45 points, then threw UL Monroeâs only touchdown and led the Warhawks with 50 rushing yards. Aidan Armenta had started and completed 10 of 16 passes for 67 yards without a touchdown or interception. That sequence did not settle the quarterback job, but it gave Bryant Vincent a real Week 2 decision. Does Carlisle receive meaningful work while the game at UAB is still competitive?
The context matters because UL Monroe lost the opener 62-13. Mississippi State accumulated 762 yards to ULMâs 278, and the Warhawks converted only three of 16 third downs. Carlisleâs late production was intriguing; it was not proof that changing quarterbacks would repair everything around him.
UL Monroe visits UAB on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. Central on ESPN+. The Fan Watch simulation gives the Warhawks a 9% chance to win, so an upset would be a substantial surprise. The more useful way to watch is to look for changes that appear early enough to matter, including a deliberate quarterback plan, drives that survive third down and a defense that makes UAB uncomfortable.
Watch when Carlisle enters
Armentaâs opening line was modest, but Carlisle did his work after the outcome had effectively been decided. The revealing choice is therefore about timing. A first-half series for Carlisle, or an early package built around his running ability, would indicate that his relief appearance altered the plan. Another entrance after the score gets away would tell fans much less.
This also does not have to be reduced immediately to a permanent starter-or-backup verdict. Vincent can compare the two quarterbacks in consequential possessions and discover whether Carlisleâs mobility gives the offense something repeatable. What matters Saturday is whether the staff treats last weekâs spark as information rather than merely cleanup production.
The setting adds something personal for the coach making that call. Vincent previously coached UABâs quarterbacks and offense before going 7-6 as its interim head coach and winning the 2022 Bahamas Bowl. His Birmingham return is worthwhile background, but the decisions he makes with this UL Monroe offense are the part that can change the Warhawksâ immediate direction.
The quarterback cannot fix the run game alone
Vincent transferred play-calling to Jesse Montalto, whose stated design is to spread defenses, use RPOs to lighten the box and retain a physical running game. Week 1 showed the intended structure without supplying the physical payoff.
Bryson Roland, Derrick Jameson, Trevon Kinchen and CJ Phillip combined for 68 yards on 23 carries in the rebuilt backfieldâs first rotation. Roland led that group with 42 yards on 12 attempts, while Jameson contributed the 40-yard touchdown catch from Carlisle. Those roles are useful to know, but UL Monroe needs a backfield that can keep the offense out of obvious passing downs. Whether Armenta or Carlisle is taking the snap, Montaltoâs offense will remain fragile if the backs cannot create manageable third downs.
Abram Murray at least gave UL Monroe a way to collect points without reaching the end zone, making field goals from 43 and 52 yards at Mississippi State. That range can reward a few productive plays. It cannot substitute for sustained possessions, but it means crossing midfield can carry real value in a game where opportunities may be scarce.
Reffettâs defense needs disruption
Troy Reffettâs first defense allowed 345 rushing yards and 417 passing yards without recording a sack or takeaway. Noah Flemmings made a team-high nine tackles, but he did not record a tackle for loss, breakup or quarterback hurry. Activity after the ball arrives is not enough when the unit needs to stop drives before they become scoring chances.
The defense does not need to dominate for the afternoon to feel different. One early sack, a takeaway or repeated wins on third down would give the offense shorter fields and keep Vincentâs quarterback options relevant. If UAB controls the ball while UL Monroe again produces no disruptive plays, any offensive experiment will take place under the same damaging pressure as last week.
That response matters against the seasonâs larger backdrop. Sun Belt coaches placed UL Monroe seventh and last in the West with 19 poll points. The Mississippi State loss did not make that projection destiny after one game, but Saturday is the first chance to push back. Play coherent football on the second straight road trip, establish usable roles and remain competitive long enough for coaching choices to mean something.
The interactive guide and methodology provide the broader forecast. An upset would be memorable, but the afternoon becomes useful well before that. Carlisle gets meaningful snaps, Montaltoâs backs support him or Armenta, and Reffettâs defense finally creates some disruption.