Brad Jackson completed 15 of 23 passes for 150 yards and an interception as Texas State lost 59-7 at Texas. Texas turned three takeaways into three touchdowns. Graceson Littleton returned Taji Atkins’ fumble 59 yards after Rasheem Biles forced it, Maraad Watson strip-sacked Jackson, and Biles’ interception set up a three-play scoring drive from the Bobcats’ 45. That is the damage Texas State carries into Week 2, not simply an ugly margin, but possessions that never had a chance to become points.
UTSA visits San Marcos at 2:30 p.m. Central on Saturday, Sept. 12, with The CW Network carrying the game. The simulation makes this essentially even, giving Texas State a 50% chance to win. A victory corresponds to a 20.5% chance of reaching the Pac-12 championship game; a loss corresponds to 16.9%. The narrow gap fits the moment. This nonconference rivalry matters, but it will not settle Texas State’s first Pac-12 season.
Jackson needs to make productive possessions count
The relevant standard is the offense Texas State already established. The 2025 Bobcats averaged 36.46 points and 472.8 yards, nearly balancing 250.8 passing yards with 222.1 rushing yards per game. One afternoon against Texas does not erase that identity, but the returning passing foundation now has to show that it can still drive it.
Jackson’s completion rate in Austin was respectable; 150 yards and no passing touchdown were not enough to make Texas State dangerous. The most useful response against UTSA would be sustained production from Jackson and his receivers, followed by touchdowns when the field shortens.
Texas State reached the red zone three times against Texas and scored once; Dylan Cunanan missed from 24 and 35 yards on the other two trips. That is why merely moving the ball Saturday will not be reassuring. Jackson needs to convert manageable situations, the offense needs to finish drives, and the turnovers that handed Texas points and field position cannot continue.
The running game also needs definition. Six non-quarterbacks carried the ball in Austin, but none gained more than 34 yards; Torrance Burgess Jr. received the largest workload with 12 attempts. A committee can work, but against UTSA it needs to produce an answer when the offense cannot live entirely through Jackson.
Windham’s defense has a specific problem to correct
Will Windham’s first Texas State defense allowed 516 yards, and Texas scored on eight of its nine offensive possessions. G.J. Kinne identified players being left unaccounted for and failures to execute the called assignment, which makes Saturday’s defensive watch much sharper than a generic demand to “play better.”
UTSA opened with 527 yards in a 45-16 win over UTRGV, producing five offensive gains of at least 30 yards while Owen McCown threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Texas State therefore needs defenders in the right places before tackling or talent can decide anything. Limiting free runners and forcing UTSA to string together drives would show that Windham’s corrections survived the week of practice.
There was one resolved concern inside the defensive wreckage. Jo’Laison Landry and Trez Moore both entered the rotation against Texas; Landry made a solo tackle, while Moore recorded five tackles and a pass breakup. Their participation gives Windham two available contributors, but Saturday must reveal whether the unit around them can operate coherently.
Special teams belong in the same conversation about usable possessions. Cunanan’s two short misses were compounded by a low snap that disrupted Tom Flintoff’s only punt, which traveled 17 yards. One game does not make those failures permanent. Another round of lost points or field position, however, would make the offense’s and defense’s recovery substantially harder.
The streak belongs to Texas State, but the series still belongs to UTSA
Texas State lost the first five football meetings with UTSA and then won the last two; UTSA still leads the series 5-2. That is the week’s real emotional tension. The Bobcats are no longer trying to prove that they can ever beat the Roadrunners. They are trying to protect the reversal they finally created.
The regional test will continue immediately afterward. North Texas visits next week for a rematch of Texas State’s 30-28 victory in the 2024 First Responder Bowl. These two home games can preserve recent in-state gains or make the Texas loss feel like the beginning of a broader slide. UTSA comes first, in a matchup the model says is almost a coin flip.
The full forecast is available in the interactive guide, with the simulation explained in the methodology.
Saturday comes down to Jackson turning possessions into touchdowns, Windham’s defense accounting for UTSA’s threats, and the kicking and punt operations no longer wasting whatever progress those units make. A third straight rivalry win would matter most if Texas State earns it by correcting the problems Austin exposed.