Nico Gramatica made four field goals against Florida International (FIU), including one from 53 yards, and scored 13 of South Florida’s 19 points. The Bulls won Brian Hartline’s debut 19-9, but asking the kicker to carry that much of the offense again would make Saturday at Army needlessly precarious.
Michael Van Buren Jr. completed 11 of 18 passes for 100 yards without a touchdown or interception, while the entire offense finished with 208 yards and no gain longer than 14. That was a clean first start from the new quarterback, not yet a productive one.
The ground game did not create much relief. Jason Collins Jr. gained 59 yards on 17 carries, D.J. Crowther added 42 on 14, and the Bulls averaged 2.8 yards across their 38 rushing attempts. Beck wants a physical offense, but at Army the backs need to gain enough on early downs to keep Van Buren out of obvious passing situations and help South Florida create good field position for itself.
FIU’s three giveaways produced the possessions on which South Florida scored its lone touchdown and two of Gramatica’s field goals. That is exactly how complementary football should punish mistakes. It is also difficult to make a weekly scoring plan out of takeaways.
Hartline identified missed assignments, execution errors, a penalty and a drop among the reasons opportunities stalled, and he said the offense must become more explosive. He also warned that repeatedly settling for field goals leaves an opponent alive. Against Army, a couple of gains that alter field position and red-zone possessions ending with six points would tell us more about Beck’s offense than another tidy turnover column by itself.
South Florida at Army
Saturday, noon ET, CBSSN
South Florida has a 59% chance to win. The modeled stakes are already substantial. A Bulls win corresponds to a 70.2% chance of reaching the American title game and a 23.3% chance of making the playoff; a loss corresponds to 36.6% and 10.2%, respectively. Those are alternative outcomes for Saturday, which is why this game deserves nearly all of the week’s attention.
This is South Florida’s earliest conference game in program history, the American’s first league game of 2026 and the schools’ first meeting as conference members. Hartline, a first-year head coach after coordinating Ohio State’s offense, entrusted the transition to Beck on offense and Josh Aldridge on defense. There is no long runway for that new structure before the standings begin to count.
The encouraging part is that Aldridge’s rebuilt defense looked cohesive immediately. The unit produced five tackles for loss, two interceptions, a recovered fumble and three pass breakups against FIU. Safety Tavin Ward credited the defense’s offseason bonding for that cohesion, while calling the touchdown it allowed on the final possession unacceptable.
That last qualification matters. FIU stayed out of the end zone until completing a seven-play, 87-yard touchdown drive on the game’s final play. The defense had already done the decisive work, but Ward supplied the right standard for what comes next, which is disruption throughout the afternoon, followed by a finish.
Van Buren needs to protect the ball again, Collins and Crowther need to keep the offense out of long-yardage trouble, and the Bulls need enough touchdowns to make Gramatica their margin rather than their whole plan. If they can do that in a conference road win, Hartline’s rebuilt offense will have shown it can score without the defense creating every opening.
The rest of the board
These games carry smaller, specific benefits. Track them after South Florida has handled, or failed to handle, the main event.
Memphis at Boise State: root for Memphis
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, USA Network
Memphis has a 39% chance to win, and that result adds 1.5 percentage points to South Florida’s playoff odds. Memphis visits Tampa in Week 11, so a road win over Boise State would make a later Bulls win over Memphis more valuable to the playoff committee. It would not affect the American standings directly, but it is the best national result available to South Florida this week.
South Alabama at Tulane: root for Tulane
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Tulane has a 77% chance to win, with a 1.3-point benefit to South Florida’s playoff odds. Tulane comes to Tampa in Week 13, making this another future-opponent result. It is the likeliest helpful outcome of the evening, although its modest impact means there is little reason to sweat it possession by possession.
Navy at Florida Atlantic: root for Florida Atlantic
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Florida Atlantic has only an 18% chance to win, but the upset would add 3.5 percentage points to South Florida’s conference-title-game odds. A Florida Atlantic upset would hand Navy an American loss and directly help South Florida in the league race. With only an 18% chance of happening, it is a bonus rather than a result the Bulls can count on.
The full set of conditional outcomes is available in the interactive South Florida guide, with the simulation approach explained on the methodology page.