Bishop Davenport’s potential tying two-point pass fell incomplete in the final minute of South Alabama’s 33-31 loss to Tulane last season. The Jaguars had trailed 33-17 before scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns, only to leave the comeback one play short.
South Alabama returns to that matchup Saturday after beating SE Louisiana 39-14 in Week 1. The Jaguars scored on each of their first three possessions and built a 19-0 first-quarter lead, with Damyrion Darby’s interception and a punt-snap safety helping offense, defense and special teams create the separation. That was an encouraging beginning for Major Applewhite’s recovery project because the team dictated the game together rather than asking one unit to rescue another.
The next step is much harder. South Alabama plays at Tulane at 6 p.m. Central on ESPN+. The model gives the Jaguars a 23% chance to win, enough to make the upset plausible without making South Alabama the likely winner. A win corresponds to a 17.5% chance of reaching the Sun Belt title game; a loss corresponds to 14.9%.
The committee gives South Alabama a way in
South Alabama’s clearest route is to keep Davenport and Tulane’s offense watching from the sideline. PJ Martin, Keenan Phillips and Trae’von Dunbar combined for 44 carries, 195 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, evidence that the post-Bullock plan is a genuine workload-sharing committee. The whole offense ran for 241 yards.
That matters because Tulane allowed 250 rushing yards at Duke, including 227 yards and two touchdowns to Nate Sheppard. Tulane also committed 15 penalties for 109 yards and converted only 3 of 14 third downs in a 17-3 loss. One Saturday does not establish either team’s permanent identity, but the two opening results fit together neatly enough to give the underdog a credible plan. Stay patient on the ground, extend possessions and make Tulane prove that Duke did not expose a repeatable weakness.
The committee carries extra weight because Kentrel Bullock left after setting South Alabama’s single-season rushing record with 1,085 yards and scoring 14 rushing touchdowns in 2025. This was already a run-led offense. South Alabama averaged 199.9 rushing yards against 181.1 passing yards per game last season, so replacing Bullock is closer to replacing the offense’s center of gravity than filling an ordinary vacancy.
Saturday can tell us whether Martin, Phillips and Dunbar merely overwhelmed an FCS opponent or can preserve that identity against a favored road opponent. Watch whether all three continue receiving meaningful work and whether South Alabama can avoid obvious passing downs. If the Jaguars are still rotating fresh backs in the fourth quarter, the unfinished ending from 2025 can become relevant again.
Davenport still has to supply the answers
Possession alone probably will not finish this. Davenport completed 18 of 27 passes for 154 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against SE Louisiana, a functional line that produced only 5.7 yards per attempt. Brendan Jenkins supplied 78 yards and the opening 26-yard touchdown, while Jeremiah Jones-Thomas matched his five catches. That distribution offers the beginning of a new hierarchy, but not yet proof that South Alabama can create explosive passes when a defense squeezes the run.
That is the central offensive watch point at Tulane. The backs can keep Tulane occupied near the line; Davenport must punish the extra defenders with enough chunk gains to turn long possessions into touchdowns. Davenport brings continuity to a rebuilt group of skill players, and this time he needs to create the explosive passes that can keep the comeback from waiting until the final possession.
Orlando’s defense cannot surrender the quick counterpunch
Todd Orlando’s debut produced two interceptions, 45 rushing yards allowed and an 0-for-7 result on SE Louisiana’s third downs. The takeaways and third-down stops gave South Alabama’s offense extra chances while keeping SE Louisiana from sustaining drives.
The warning came through the air. SE Louisiana’s two touchdowns both arrived on four-play drives, covering 76 and 65 yards, and a 54-yard reception helped set up the first score. Against Tulane, the ideal game is slow and increasingly uncomfortable for the favorite. A couple of explosive completions would erase that advantage quickly, just as South Alabama’s otherwise strong defensive opener showed.
There is no secondary scoreboard assignment this week. The interactive guide contains the full forecast, and the probabilities are explained in the methodology, but no outside result carries enough value to divide attention. This week is concentrated in New Orleans, with three backs trying to shorten the game, Davenport trying to expand it at the right moments, and South Alabama trying to earn the finish that escaped it by one pass last season.