SMU gets five days to turn explosiveness into control

Kevin Jennings found Dramekco Green for 29 yards on third-and-10 during SMU’s decisive nine-play, 71-yard drive at Florida State. Nick Reed finished it with a 20-yard field goal with 21 seconds left, giving the Mustangs a 27-24 win. That response matters. After Jennings threw an interception in a tied game with 6:33 remaining, Florida State went three plays for minus-eight yards and SMU took back control.

Jennings completed 26 of 36 passes for a career-high 430 yards and three touchdowns, ran five times for 33 net yards and threw two interceptions, one in the end zone and one in the fourth quarter. Rhett Lashlee also credited Jennings’ legs with extending passing plays and highlighted his eight-yard run on the final drive. The opener showed almost every reason SMU can contend, plus the specific habit that can make a dominant offense live dangerously.

The production did not depend on one established target. Eight receivers accounted for all 26 completions and 430 yards, with four gaining at least 70 yards and three catching touchdowns. Only three of those eight had been at SMU before this season, according to Lashlee, and only two had previously caught a pass from Jennings. That is an excellent opening performance from a rebuilt group, although one game cannot establish who will command the ball every week.

The larger warning belongs to the entire team. SMU’s four giveaways included Jennings’ two interceptions, a Jalen Hale fumble and a Yamir Knight muffed punt; Florida State turned them into only seven points. UC Davis should not receive the same supply of extra possessions.

What to want from the home opener

No. 17 SMU hosts UC Davis at 1 p.m. Pacific on Saturday on ACC Extra, and the model gives the Mustangs a 99.7% chance to win. SMU is heavily favored. The question is whether SMU can make its passing advantage feel routine without stripping away Jennings’ aggressiveness.

The Mustangs have only five days between Monday night’s win at Florida State and Saturday’s home opener, then visit Louisville the following week. That compressed preparation makes sharp execution more informative than an inflated final margin. Watch Jennings’ decisions when the first read is covered, the security of every punt return and whether the receivers protect the ball after the catch.

UC Davis is equipped to notice sloppiness. The Aggies are 2-0, have averaged 40 points and 455.5 yards, and own five takeaways against three giveaways. They also erased a 21-0 halftime deficit at Portland State, scoring every one of their points after halftime in a 31-24 win. SMU should not assume an early lead will make them disappear.

The other worthwhile check comes when UC Davis gives the ball to Jordan Fisher. The returning thousand-yard rusher has produced 129 rushing yards, 101 receiving yards and four touchdowns through two games, while returning thousand-yard receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. has 17 catches for 236 yards and three scores. Their experience gives SMU’s defense a useful test after Florida State ran for 199 net yards.

SMU’s defense still supplied plenty to like in Tallahassee. It held Florida State to 125 passing yards and 2-of-15 on third down while producing three sacks and eight tackles for loss. Against UC Davis, SMU needs the negative plays to remain while the early-down run defense allows fewer productive runs. That would make the unit more dependable before visiting Louisville.

There is also an important limit on what one can attribute to the coaching transition. SMU announced that co-defensive coordinator Maurice Crum Jr. would take over play-calling after Scott Symons left for the Dallas Cowboys, with Rickey Hunley Jr. remaining co-coordinator. Yet official SMU materials identify Crum as the play caller, while game-specific reporting said Hunley called the defense against Florida State. Until SMU reconciles that conflict, fans can judge the defense’s progress without pretending the opener settled how Crum personally handled the calls.

The late drive at Florida State showed Jennings recovering from his interception, converting a long third down and putting Reed in position to win. Saturday can show whether SMU can retain the explosive passing distribution, protect the football across every unit and make UC Davis earn its yards on the ground.

UCF at Pittsburgh: root for UCF

Kickoff is 12:30 p.m. Pacific Saturday on ESPN2. UCF has a 17% chance to win, and an upset would be worth 2.0 percentage points to SMU’s chance of reaching the ACC Championship Game. The chance is 47.5% if UCF wins, compared with 45.6% if Pittsburgh wins.

UCF is playing a nonconference game. A Pittsburgh loss would instead tell the model that an ACC competitor may be weaker than expected. The benefit is real but modest, and the upset is unlikely, so this is a pleasant scoreboard check rather than something SMU needs.

The full set of modeled outcomes is available in the interactive SMU guide, with the simulation approach explained on the methodology page.