Brauntae Johnson and Jason Onye left Notre Dame’s opener late in the first half, were ruled out for the rest of the game and later appeared in left-leg walking boots. Luke Talich replaced Johnson, while Elijah Hughes entered the defensive-line rotation for Onye; Freeman said Tuesday that both starters would miss Rice and be out for a couple of weeks.
Notre Dame still turned a 13-10 halftime lead over Wisconsin into a 41-13 win, scoring 28 points after the break. The Irish strung together touchdowns on three consecutive second-half offensive possessions, and D.J. McKinney returned an interception 55 yards for another score. The halftime turnaround makes a faster start against Rice the next thing to watch, but one strong half cannot establish a season-long pattern.
Notre Dame’s defense provided the clearest reason for confidence entering this week. Wisconsin reached the red zone twice and settled for two field goals, while Notre Dame held the Badgers to 67 net rushing yards on 31 attempts. Rice presents a different challenge. Rice is bringing an option structure designed to make every defender honor his assignment, so Talich and the defensive-line rotation will be asked to preserve that standard with two starters out.
Notre Dame vs. Rice
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
This is Notre Dame’s home opener after Sunday night’s Shamrock Series game at Lambeau Field, giving the Irish a short week between distinctly different assignments. With Notre Dame given a 99.5% chance to win, the drama is whether the Irish handle Rice’s option cleanly on a short week.
Rice’s offense is genuinely specialized. In Scott Abell’s first season, the Owls rushed for 2,661 yards, averaged 204.7 per game and attempted only 224 passes across 13 games. Last week Rice ran 70 times for 465 net yards, averaged 6.6 yards per carry and held the ball for 39:32 in a 31-3 win over Houston Christian. That does not erase the talent gap. It does explain why missed fits, poor eye discipline or careless edge play could let an enormous favorite spend more time defending than it wants.
Notre Dame needs to win first down and force Rice out of its preferred possession script. Talich and the reshuffled defensive-line rotation will show whether the Irish can contain a very different rushing attack without Johnson and Onye.
A win corresponds to a 94.2% playoff chance in the model, compared with 85.3% in the alternative branch where Rice wins, an 8.9-point difference. The first-round-bye branches are even farther apart at 58.1% with an Irish win and 37.2% with a loss, a 20.9-point swing. This is less a source of suspense than a reminder of how little Notre Dame can gain and how much it could surrender against a 0.5% upset chance.
Carr should keep distributing the ball without turnovers, while the running game needs a faster start. CJ Carr completed 19 of 29 passes for 239 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, distributing those completions among nine receivers. A similarly controlled afternoon would reinforce the idea that Notre Dame can let Carr distribute the ball without asking him to rescue the offense.
Aneyas Williams established the lead-back arrangement with 20 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns; Nolan James Jr. and Kedren Young worked as complementary pieces. But Notre Dame managed only 29 rushing yards on 16 first-half attempts before the coaches adjusted the run game at halftime and challenged the backs to commit to their aiming points. Against Rice, root for that corrected version to appear from the opening series.
One Week 1 question did receive a firm answer. Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Quincy Porter did not participate against Wisconsin. That establishes what happened in the opener, not whether either will be available this week. Their status belongs on the pregame checklist, while Johnson and Onye are confirmed absences after Freeman’s Tuesday update.
Notre Dame’s two takeaways against Wisconsin became 14 points. Kahanu Kia’s recovery of a muffed kickoff set up James Flanigan’s touchdown catch, and McKinney supplied the pick-six. More sudden-change production would be welcome, but the cleaner defensive marker against Rice is whether the option remains contained even when no takeaway arrives.
The two outside games worth a glance
Neither helpful result is likely, and neither affects Notre Dame through a conference race or a future meeting. Both matter because ranked teams are competing with the Irish nationally for the limited first-round byes.
Penn State at Temple: root for Temple
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2
Temple has a 6% chance to pull off the upset. If the Owls pull it off, Notre Dame’s modeled first-round-bye chance is 60.5%; if Penn State wins, it is 57.8%. That is a 2.7-point benefit produced by removing strength from a national top-seed competitor.
This is pure bonus territory. Check the score, enjoy it if Temple keeps the game close and do not build the week around a result with roughly a one-in-16 chance.
Texas Tech at Oregon State: root for Oregon State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Oregon State has a 5% chance to win. The two alternative branches put Notre Dame’s first-round-bye chance at 60.3% with an Oregon State victory and 57.8% with a Texas Tech victory, a 2.5-point difference. The mechanism is again national competition near the top of the field, not any direct schedule or standings effect for Notre Dame.
So the weekend’s order is simple. Watch whether the Irish defense stays structurally sound against Rice, pay special attention to Talich and the defensive-line rotation with two starters out, and treat either outside upset as found money. The full set of outcomes is available in the interactive Week 2 guide, with the simulation approach explained on the methodology page.