After Mercyhurst briefly took a 14-13 lead, Ilya Uvaydovâs 39-yard field goal put New Mexico State ahead for good, and James Jones followed with a 46-yard touchdown run before halftime. The Aggies eventually won 51-14, but that turning sequence matters more than the final margin. An FCS opponent made them respond before they could run away.
Hedden, King and Jones showed how David Yostâs offense can pair explosive passing with a credible run game. Trey Hedden threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, TK King turned three catches into 94 yards, and Jones ran 19 times for 137 yards. Hedden took only one sack. That is the balance New Mexico State needed to see, and it is also only one game against Mercyhurst.
Saturday night asks whether that formula can travel. New Mexico State plays at Hawaiâi at 9:59 p.m. Mountain on MW+, and the interactive guide gives the Aggies a 20% chance to win. An Aggies win would be a real upset; even in a loss, sustaining that balance against an FBS opponent would mean more than the Mercyhurst rout.
Make Hawaiâi defend the whole offense
Jones is the cleanest place to start. Hawaiâi allowed UNLV to rush for 248 yards and three touchdowns last week, while New Mexico Stateâs rushing output has swung from 47 yards against Florida State to 236 against Mercyhurst. The opponent level changed dramatically between those games, so Saturday can tell us much more than the raw improvement alone.
The upset route cannot consist of handing Jones the ball into a loaded box. Through two games, Hedden has completed 37 passes for 525 yards and four touchdowns. King has supplied 172 receiving yards across those two games, including 94 against Mercyhurst. If those two keep punishing Hawaiâi for crowding the run, New Mexico State can make its balance mutually reinforcing instead of merely alternating between plays.
That would also show something meaningful about continuity. Tony Sanchez has nine full-time assistants back for his third season, Yost is coordinating the offense for a second year, and Joe Morris has directed the defense since January 2024. A stable staff should give a heavily remade roster a better chance to carry its assignments through the longest road trip of the season; Saturday is where that advantage needs to become visible under stress.
There were useful signs against Mercyhurst. Nick Session, TJ Washington Jr., Jones and Terrione Graves each scored his first touchdown for New Mexico State and at the FBS level. Washington scored twice, while Graves caught an 83-yard touchdown from Hedden. Production from players in new roles is more persuasive than simply counting newcomers, but functioning together in Honolulu is the next step.
Make Hawaiâi labor for every drive
Hawaiâi gained 294 yards and recorded 20 first downs against UNLV but never reached the end zone. Quarterback Micah Alejado went 17-of-41 for 176 yards with an interception and absorbed five sacks. That gives Sone Aupiu and Tory Gethers a very specific opening. Create lost downs, hurry Alejado and force a struggling offense to string together clean possessions.
Aupiu intercepted a pass and broke up another against Mercyhurst, while Gethers made six tackles and forced a fumble. New Mexico State held Mercyhurst to 4.1 yards per play and five third-down conversions in 13 attempts. Those down-to-down numbers are important because last seasonâs defense generated 24 takeaways yet still allowed 401.8 yards and 27.6 points per game. The better version of this unit cannot live on turnovers alone.
Still, one timely takeaway would fit the upset perfectly. New Mexico State has forced at least one turnover in 18 straight games, and Session has intercepted a pass in each game this season. Against a favorite already struggling to convert its opportunities, one short field could change the shape of the night.
Stay close enough to answer the old question
Hawaiâi leads this series 11-1 and has won all seven meetings in Honolulu. The last visit remains especially sharp. New Mexico State led 17-3 at halftime in 2023, went scoreless after the break and lost 20-17 on a field goal as time expired. This weekâs 6,420-mile round trip therefore tests more than whether the Aggies can start well; it asks whether they can preserve their formula through a full night in a place where they have never won.
Mercyhurst could not provide that kind of finish after New Mexico State took control. Special teams also left a reason for unease. Ilya Uvaydov made from 39 yards but missed attempts from 46 and 51, and an extra point was blocked. If Saturday reaches the fourth quarter within one possession, field-goal operation and accuracy may decide whether an encouraging performance becomes an actual breakthrough.
A win would lift New Mexico Stateâs modeled chance of reaching the Conference USA title game to 4.9%; a loss leaves that chance at 3.6%. Those are alternative outcomes from the Week 2 simulation, whose approach is explained in the methodology. The modest difference is the right frame. This nonconference game is not a referendum on the season, but beating a heavily favored Hawaiâi team would provide far stronger evidence than the Mercyhurst rout did.
Jones needs to command enough respect to open chances for Hedden and King, while Aupiu and Gethers need to make Hawaiâi labor for every drive. If those advantages hold for four quarters, New Mexico State will have done something no Aggie team has managed in Honolulu.