Memphis takes its two-back formula to The Blue

Jaylin Carter answered Arkansas State’s third-quarter touchdown on Memphis’ next possession, bursting for 74 yards and restoring the separation the Tigers needed. He finished with 183 rushing yards and four touchdowns as Memphis beat Arkansas State 42-24.

Manny Covey added 103 yards, and the Tigers finished with 335 yards on 48 carries. That gives Memphis more than a nice box score entering Saturday’s trip to Boise State. It gives the Tigers a plausible way to control a difficult road game without asking Marcus Stokes to carry it.

That last part matters. Stokes completed 12 of 15 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas State, but he also threw two interceptions. Kevin Decker arrived as offensive coordinator after his 2025 Old Dominion offense ranked seventh nationally in rushing and emphasized explosive plays. Carter and Covey are already making that blueprint recognizable; the next step is letting their production simplify the game for Stokes instead of watching quarterback mistakes return possessions to Boise State.

The reset gets a serious road opportunity

Charles Huff came to Memphis after taking Southern Miss from 1-11 in 2024 to 7-5 in 2025. Several players who followed him from Southern Miss, including Carter, Ahmere Foster, J’Mond Tapp, Elijah Kinsler and Jermane Hayes, already occupy consequential roles in this 2-0 start. That history makes the immediate cohesion believable, but two wins cannot yet tell Memphis fans how well it will hold up across a season.

Boise State can tell them considerably more. The Broncos enter 0-1 after losing 34-27 at Oregon, while Memphis is making its second western road trip in three games. Saturday is also Memphis’ first football appearance at Albertsons Stadium and Boise State’s home opener.

Kickoff is Saturday, September 12, at 5 p.m. CT on USA Network. The model gives Memphis a 38.7% chance to win, so this is an underdog opportunity rather than a result the season must have. The reward is substantial. Memphis’ modeled CFP chance is 4.0% in the win branch and 1.6% in the loss branch, while its American title-game chance is 24.1% with a win and 17.3% with a loss.

The schedule explains why the opportunity deserves attention. After Boise State, Memphis still must visit Tulane, South Florida and Navy in conference play, and eight of its 11 FBS opponents reached bowls last season. A win on The Blue would not solve that road burden, but it would show that Huff’s quickly assembled group already owns a repeatable traveling formula.

What needs to travel

Start with Carter and Covey. Memphis does not need to recreate 335 rushing yards to make the plan work. It needs enough steady production to keep Stokes out of obvious passing situations, plus the possibility that Carter can turn one patient read into another game-changing run. Huff specifically credited the running backs with showing more patience against Arkansas State than they had at UNLV.

Then watch whether Stokes can preserve the advantage. His efficiency against Arkansas State was real, but so were the two interceptions. Memphis can win with a modest passing workload if it avoids giving Boise State short fields or extra possessions; that is the cleanest route from an encouraging offensive breakout to a dependable road identity.

The defense carries the same tension. Lance Guidry, reunited with Huff after coordinating his Marshall defenses in 2021 and 2022, brought an aggressive, attacking approach to Memphis. His unit intercepted four Arkansas State passes and recorded three sacks, yet it also conceded 325 passing yards and 434 total yards. Foster’s fourth-quarter interception became a 67-yard Memphis touchdown drive capped by Carter’s 24-yard score, illustrating exactly how disruption can finish a game.

But turnovers cannot be the entire plan. Huff said the secondary needed better zone coverage and better eye discipline in man coverage. Against Boise State, root for the pressure and takeaways to remain while the routine passing downs become less adventurous. That would be a more meaningful sign of defensive progress than another afternoon of allowing long drives and waiting for one saving play.

Memphis fans can enjoy the 2-0 start without treating it as proof. Saturday offers something better. It offers a chance to see whether the rushing depth, imported familiarity and attacking defense can function together when the Tigers are underdogs away from home. Follow every modeled branch in the interactive guide, with the simulation approach explained in the methodology.

The other result that helps

Navy at Florida Atlantic: root for Florida Atlantic

Kickoff is Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPNU. Florida Atlantic has an 18% chance to win, and that upset is worth +2.6 percentage points in Memphis’ conference-title-game odds.

The mechanism is direct. Navy is an American participant, so a Navy conference loss improves Memphis’ position in the title-game race. The two modeled outcomes are alternatives. Memphis sits at a 22.1% title-game chance if Florida Atlantic wins and 19.5% if Navy wins, not movement that happens in sequence.

It is a useful upset to want, not one to plan the season around. Keep the main screen on Memphis and Boise State; check ESPNU afterward to see whether Florida Atlantic can supply a modest conference bonus.