Isaac Terrell introduced himself with three first-half sacks, a forced fumble and a quarterback hurry in Iowa State’s opener. The Cyclones beat Southeast Missouri State 38-10, and Terrell immediately gave Jesse Bobbit’s new defense a disruptive player around whom it could build.
Bobbit’s four-man structure started Terrell and Caden Crawford at end, with Max Baloun and Bryson Lamb at tackle; Iowa State finished with six sacks and 12 tackles for loss. That production is the most encouraging part of the opener because it points toward a specific way Iowa State can hang around at Iowa. Stop explosive runs, create negative plays and keep the Hawkeyes from controlling the game on the ground.
The Cyclones should not confuse a clean final score with a solved rebuild. Iowa State entered as nearly a 30-point favorite, and its 28-point victory broadly matched that expectation. Week 1 showed that the reconstructed roster could function; it did not establish how that roster will respond when the favorite hits back.
There were still useful signs of cohesion. After Aiden Flora muffed a first-quarter punt, the defense pushed Southeast Missouri State backward and Flora answered on his next return with a 36-yard gain that set up a touchdown. Flora said teammates reassured him immediately after the mistake. That response matters in Kinnick, where one bad exchange cannot be allowed to become the next two bad possessions.
The path to another tight Cy-Hawk game
Iowa State visits No. 21 Iowa on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT on NBC. The simulation gives the Cyclones a 13% chance to win, which is appropriately sobering for a team arriving with no returning offensive or defensive starters. Iowa State opened the season with 83 newcomers and 43 holdovers, making it the only Power Four team without a returning starter on either side of the ball.
Iowa’s opener explains the gap. The Hawkeyes produced 507 yards, 298 rushing yards and 26 first downs in a 40-0 win over Northern Illinois, their highest total-offense output under coordinator Tim Lester. Kamari Moulton supplied 183 yards and two touchdowns on only 11 carries, including scoring runs of 50 and 37 yards.
Another big sack total will mean little unless Iowa State first controls Iowa’s running game. Terrell and the front need to prevent Moulton from reaching the secondary cleanly. If Iowa State forces second-and-long and obvious passing situations, its pressure can matter. If Moulton keeps creating touchdowns from ordinary handoffs, the Cyclones’ recent rivalry history will offer little protection.
Jaylen Raynor also has to keep the defense out of bad situations. Raynor completed 8 of 16 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns, then ran for 32 yards and two more scores without throwing an interception. Four touchdowns and no turnovers are a welcome foundation, but completing half his throws leaves Iowa State too dependent on a handful of big plays.
The Cyclones converted 4 of 10 third downs while Dominic Overby and Omari Hayes combined for 139 receiving yards on only four catches. Against Iowa, Raynor needs enough routine completions to prevent the Hawkeyes from repeatedly attacking a tired defense. Iowa State does not need a high-volume passing masterpiece; it needs drives that last long enough for the defensive front’s work to count.
If the Cyclones can do that, this rivalry has repeatedly shown what comes next. Each of the last four Cy-Hawk games finished within one score, and three were decided by three points or fewer. Iowa State has won the last two meetings at Kinnick.
Kyle Konrardy won the 2024 game at Iowa with a 54-yard field goal in the final six seconds, then beat the Hawkeyes again with a 54-yarder in the closing two minutes of the 2025 meeting. The Cyclones cannot ask Konrardy to erase a large Iowa advantage. They can ask Terrell’s front and Raynor’s offense to deliver one more compressed fourth quarter in which his range matters.
A victory would put Iowa State’s modeled conference-title-game probability at 9.2%, compared with 7.3% after a loss, and its playoff probability at 3.3%, compared with 2.1%. More importantly, a roster with 83 newcomers would have beaten a ranked rival on the road and extended Iowa State’s recent command of Cy-Hawk.
Rice at Notre Dame: root for Notre Dame
Kickoff is Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT on NBC. Iowa State’s modeled playoff probability is 2.3% if Notre Dame wins and 0.8% if Rice pulls the upset, a 1.5-point difference. With the Irish given a 99% win probability, however, the favorable result is already the overwhelming expectation.
The full set of conditional outcomes is available in the interactive Iowa State guide, with an explanation of the simulation at methodology.
The game has no effect on the Big 12 standings, and Notre Dame is the better result only because of Iowa State’s national playoff competition. At Kinnick, Terrell’s front must contain Iowa’s running game and Raynor must sustain enough drives to give Konrardy another close fourth quarter.