Elijah Holmes hit Jaylen Andrews for 20 yards, Clint Walker for 25 and Patrick Clacks III for 15 on Buffalo’s decisive 61-yard drive, then found Chance Morrow for the five-yard touchdown. UAlbany answered by reaching the Buffalo 1, but a false start pushed the Great Danes backward before Stevie Bracey stopped Luke McAuliffe at the 3 on fourth down. Buffalo won 21-17, giving a rebuilt team a finish worth enjoying without disguising how close the opener came to turning the other way.
That drive supplied the best version of the new offense. Holmes handled the pressure, distributed the ball and finished with the target Buffalo wanted near the goal line. In his first Buffalo and Division I start, he completed 26 of 47 passes for 189 yards, threw three touchdowns without an interception and connected with Morrow for all three scores. The touchdowns mattered; the 4.0 yards per attempt still defines this week’s problem.
Buffalo at FIU
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET · ESPN+
Tony Tokarz is installing a new offensive system in his first season as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, with new line coach Cooper Williams part of the transition. Holmes is also Buffalo’s fourth season-opening starting quarterback in four years. The opener therefore counts as an encouraging first piece of evidence, not proof that the operation travels.
Morrow’s production was more than three fortunate catches. All three touchdowns went to the 6-foot-4 receiver from inside the 10, and Pete Lembo identified his size as a natural low-red-zone advantage; Morrow credited preparation, trust in Holmes and the play calls. Keep that design. The question at FIU is whether Buffalo can reach those scoring situations without asking Holmes to throw nearly 50 times for fewer than 200 yards.
FIU makes that question unusually sharp. Its defense held South Florida quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. to 100 passing yards, no touchdowns and no completion longer than 14 yards in the opener. Meanwhile, FIU’s offense managed 80 rushing yards on 25 attempts without a rushing touchdown. Buffalo should expect the passing windows to be tight, but its defense has a chance to keep the required score manageable.
Holmes himself said the debut went fairly well while acknowledging that execution mistakes left substantial cleanup and kept Buffalo from extending its lead. On ordinary downs, Holmes needs to make quicker decisions, create manageable third downs and complete enough passes outside the red zone for Morrow’s specialized role to matter again.
The supporting cast also has room to clarify itself. Starting back Terrance Shelton Jr. produced 46 yards on 14 carries and 11 receiving yards, while returning receiver Jasaiah Gathings caught two passes for 14 yards. Reserve Messiah Burch supplied the burst, running for 74 yards on eight carries with a 47-yard gain. If Burch can preserve that explosive element while Shelton and Gathings give Holmes steadier production, Buffalo will not have to recreate one late drive every time it needs points.
The defensive route to an upset
Buffalo’s front generated three sacks against UAlbany, one each from Bracey, Logan Goodwin and Christopher Climes, and SaVeon Brown intercepted Kai Colón after a Goodwin hurry. Bracey then made the final fourth-down tackle. That pressure is the most believable route to giving the offense shorter fields at FIU.
FIU quarterback JJ Kohl threw for 301 yards against South Florida, but he also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble; the Panthers’ lone touchdown arrived on the final play of their 19-9 loss. Buffalo does not need to dominate every snap if its rebuilt defense can turn that ball-security trouble into possessions Holmes can finish with Morrow.
The model gives Buffalo a 36% chance to win. Its conference-title-game estimate is roughly 15% in the Buffalo-win branch and 18% in the loss branch; those are separate simulated scenarios, not evidence that losing helps. This is an appealing upset chance, but Buffalo’s season does not hinge on it.
Still, the opportunity has some urgency. Buffalo’s schedule sends the Bulls from FIU to Penn State, then home against Robert Morris before MAC play opens with defending champion Western Michigan and a trip to Toledo. FIU is the attainable road game in that stretch, and it can reveal whether the UAlbany finish was the beginning of a functional offense or merely an excellent red-zone answer inside an inefficient night.
For the broader numbers, see the full interactive guide and methodology. On Saturday, Buffalo needs to preserve the Holmes-to-Morrow connection near the goal line, pressure Kohl and produce touchdowns before another final drive becomes necessary.