Maddux Madsen came off the bench against Memphis in 2023 and threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to Ashton Jeanty, twice pulling Boise State within three points during a comeback that never quite arrived. Three years later, he returns to the matchup as the incumbent quarterback after throwing three touchdowns without an interception in Boise State’s 34-27 season-opening loss at Oregon.
That makes Saturday’s rematch feel less like ancient history than unfinished business. Memphis visits Boise State at 3 p.m. Pacific on USA Network, and the Broncos enter as 61% favorites. This is a game they should win, but Madsen may again have to supply more of the answer than Boise State would prefer.
The clean quarterback play needs company
Madsen completed 15 of 29 passes for 181 yards at Oregon, distributing his three touchdowns among Sire Gaines, Matt Wagner and Cam Bates without giving the Ducks an interception. That was meaningful progress. The passing game incorporated different targets and protected the ball in a difficult road opener. The 15 completions in 29 attempts also leave room for a more complete performance at home.
The larger concern sits next to him. Boise State ran 36 times for 93 net yards, and no rush gained more than nine yards. Dylan Riley carried 17 times for 50 yards, while Gaines added 39 on 11 attempts. That workload kept the run involved, but it did not make the offense balanced in any threatening sense.
Against Memphis, watch whether Boise State can create an explosive run and keep Madsen out of obvious passing situations. A functioning ground game would do more than improve Saturday’s box score. It would show that the Broncos can win without asking their quarterback to rescue every stalled series.
That matters because Memphis has already demonstrated how quickly it can take over a game on the ground. The Tigers rushed for 335 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas State; Jaylin Carter supplied 183 yards and all four scores, while Manny Covey added 103. Boise State does not need to match those totals. It does need to prevent Memphis from controlling the terms of the game while its own rushing attack searches for traction.
Madsen has an opening, provided he stays clean
Memphis’ defense produced four interceptions and three sacks against Arkansas State, yet conceded 325 passing yards and 7.4 yards per play. That is the invitation and the warning in the same set of numbers. Throws should be available, but careless ones can change the game.
This is why Madsen’s Oregon performance is the most encouraging part of the opener rather than proof that the offense is settled. He showed he could distribute touchdowns and avoid the damaging mistake. Now he gets a defense that allowed substantial passing production but punished errors. Boise State needs another turnover-free afternoon from Madsen, this time with enough efficiency and rushing support to control the game instead of chasing it.
The defense must create something
Oregon exposed the other unfinished part of Boise State’s Week 1 performance. The Broncos allowed 497 yards, including 378 through the air, while generating one sack; the defense had no takeaway. Jayden Virgin-Morgan recorded two tackles and one quarterback hurry but no sack or tackle for loss. Safeties Travis Anderson and Derek Ganter Jr. combined for 18 tackles, production that also illustrates how much work reached the back end.
Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes went 12 of 15 for 188 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas State, but he also threw two interceptions. Boise State should be looking for the possession-changing defensive play it never found at Oregon. Pressure that forces Stokes off schedule and a secondary ready to finish the opportunity would give the offense margin it lacked last week.
One game cannot settle whether the rebuilt defense will hold up through Boise State’s first Pac-12 season. More pressure, a takeaway and fewer breakdowns in the secondary would show tangible progress against Memphis.
Finish the part Oregon left unresolved
Boise State led Oregon by 10 with 2:48 remaining in the first half. Dante Moore then directed a four-play, 44-yard touchdown drive, and Oregon added a field goal on its opening possession after halftime; the Broncos never led again.
Boise State still received the ball at its own 13 with 2:24 left, needing a touchdown to answer. The drive gained one first down before ending on fourth-and-10. Spencer Danielson afterward said his team had proved it would battle, rejected treating the loss as a moral victory and accepted responsibility for the aggressive decision before Oregon’s late first-half touchdown.
That response fits the standard he has established. Danielson is 24-9 as head coach, with three consecutive conference championships and a 2024 College Football Playoff appearance. Boise State is not using September merely to collect encouraging performances. It is trying to turn them into the habits of a championship team.
The simulation makes the cost of Saturday clear without making the game desperate. In the simulation, Boise State’s playoff probability is 4.1% in the win branch and 1.5% in the loss branch. The alternative conference-title-game branches are closer, 55.1% with a win and 50.9% with a loss, because Memphis is a nonconference opponent. So this is not an elimination game, but it is a valuable chance to preserve national upside before league play.
There is no outside game worth dividing attention over this week. The full set of outcomes is available in the interactive Boise State guide, with the simulation approach explained on the methodology page. Saturday’s useful questions are all on The Blue. Can Madsen stay clean, can the running game finally break one, and can the defense manufacture the possession that changes the afternoon?
Madsen has already chased Memphis once. This time, Boise State needs him to command a complete home win rather than author another late pursuit.