Luke Baklenko missed the blindside block that led to Cutter Boley’s sack-fumble against Morgan State. Then Arizona State scored touchdowns on its next eight possessions, making one alarming protection error the only interruption in its first 11 possessions of a 70-7 win.
Boley completed 21 of 27 passes for 387 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his first start for Arizona State. Mikey Keene and Jake Fette followed him into the game, but the preseason competition has given way to a much more interesting question. What can Boley do when the rush actually reaches him?
Arizona State finds out Saturday at No. 10 Texas A&M. Kickoff is at 9 a.m. Pacific on ABC, and the model gives the Sun Devils a 12% chance to win. That makes an upset something to savor as a possibility, not something this season must produce.
Watch the left edge
ASU scored touchdowns on 10 of its 12 possessions, but Morgan State applied too little pressure to settle how well the offense will function against Texas A&M. The line also helped the full offense rush 35 times for 249 yards and four touchdowns, although extensive reserve work contributed to those totals. Baklenko’s miss matters more this week because one clean hit can erase a promising drive, a possession or even Boley’s afternoon.
This line entered mid-August with only 25 combined Division I starts, 14 of them belonging to Baklenko. Kyle Field is a brutal place to learn together. Texas A&M is 46-4 in home nonconference games since 2010, and its opener attracted 107,782 people.
The teams’ only previous meeting supplies a pointed warning rather than a prophecy. Texas A&M recorded nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss in its 38-17 win over ASU in 2015. Those players and schemes are long gone. The useful connection is simpler. Arizona State cannot let obvious passing downs become a weekly invitation for the opponent to wreck Boley.
A few early clean pockets would keep the whole playbook available. If Boley can check into an explosive play on third-and-manageable, the line will have passed a more meaningful test than piling up another gaudy final yardage total.
Let Boley keep checking, within reason
Kenny Dillingham said Boley made checks that became explosive plays and touchdowns. Dillingham also identified an across-the-body throw that nearly became an interception, while Boley accepted responsibility for securing the ball on his fumble.
That is the tension worth watching at Kyle Field. ASU should not ask Boley to become timid merely because the opponent and stadium are imposing. His decisions created much of what made the opener exciting. But throwing across his body or holding the ball carelessly turns aggression into exactly the short-field help a heavy favorite does not need.
The best version of Saturday is not necessarily another six-touchdown line. It is Boley recognizing pressure, moving the ball to the correct matchup and refusing to compound one bad snap with another mistake. If he can still generate explosives under those conditions, ASU will have found something far more durable than an opening-week box score.
Harris and Miller have to win real matchups
Reed Harris caught six passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, while Omarion Miller caught eight for 102 yards and a touchdown. Dillingham praised both transfers’ play and specifically highlighted Harris’ lead block on a touchdown. Raiden Vines-Bright, the third member of the rebuilt transfer trio, caught one pass for one yard.
Harris and Miller therefore carry the clearest route to making the upset interesting. ASU needs them to separate quickly enough that Boley does not have to wait behind a developing line. Their blocking also matters because screens and yards after the catch can punish an aggressive rush without requiring Boley to live on deep drops.
Texas A&M allowed only 67 total yards while beating Missouri State 50-0 in its opener. That result no more settles the Aggies’ defense than Morgan State settles ASU’s offense, but it sharpens the collision. Two units dominated overmatched opening opponents, and only one enters Saturday with the comfort of being a top-10 team at home.
The defense can keep the upset alive
This game lands inside a larger question about Kenny Dillingham’s program. After consecutive 3-9 seasons, ASU went 11-3 with a Big 12 title and a CFP quarterfinal appearance in 2024, then finished 8-5 in 2025. The Sun Devils now have to sustain that rise after losing first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson and first-round tackle Max Iheanachor, plus fifth-round defenders Keith Abney II and Keyshaun Elliott.
Week 1 offered encouraging evidence beyond the offense. C.J. Fite and Owen Long started for a reworked defense that allowed 188 yards, held Morgan State to 3 of 12 on third down and recorded two sacks, although it did not force a turnover. That unit can keep Boley out of a desperate chase by forcing punts and denying Texas A&M easy fields.
A win would lift ASU’s modeled playoff chance from about 1% in the loss branch to about 3% in the win branch. Its chance to reach the Big 12 championship game is about 5% with a loss and 6% with a win. Those are alternative outcomes from the Week 2 simulation, not steps in a sequence. The upside is real, but this nonconference upset would not suddenly define the conference race.
No other game this week helps ASU enough to merit a rooting recommendation in the full guide at /2026/2/arizona-state. The methodology explains how the simulations produce the conditional chances above.
So watch for something more specific than whether ASU covers itself in glory at Kyle Field. Watch Baklenko’s edge, Boley’s response to the first free rusher and whether Harris or Miller can uncover before pressure wins. If those answers travel, the Sun Devils can make a 12% upset chance feel alive deep into Saturday, and carry a quarterback worth believing in beyond it.