Liam Szarka ran for two touchdowns, Rocco Conti gained 74 yards and Kemper Hodges added 72 yards and a score as Air Force rushed for 431 yards in Saturday’s 34-0 win over Duquesne. The rebuilt option looked like the option, which was the first thing this team needed to establish.
The encouraging part extends beyond the total. Conti and five other Falcons in offensive skill or line roles made their first career starts, so the production did not come from a settled cast merely handling an easy assignment. New players executed the offense well enough to let Air Force control its opener.
History still puts a firm ceiling on what that proves. Every Air Force team under Troy Calhoun has won this annual home opener against an FCS opponent, including the 2024 and 2025 teams before they lost seven and five consecutive games, respectively. Duquesne gave the Falcons a useful beginning, not a reliable season forecast.
North Dakota State can attack what Duquesne left unanswered
North Dakota State arrives allowing 52 rushing yards and 3.5 points per game through two victories; that rushing average leads the Mountain West. Two games make for a small sample, but this is precisely the resistance Air Force did not encounter while rolling up 431 yards last week.
Watch the first-down runs and the option decisions more closely than the final rushing total. If Szarka, Conti and Hodges can keep Air Force ahead of schedule, the Falcons can stay in the offense that made the opener so comfortable. If the Bison force second-and-long and third-and-long, the least developed part of the rebuild moves into the center of the game.
Air Force completed only three of seven passes for 19 yards against Duquesne and committed eight penalties for 60 yards. That was harmless in a shutout; it becomes dangerous against a defense capable of taking away the preferred route. The best offensive sign Saturday would therefore be more than another long option run. It would be Szarka answering a forced passing situation, or the offense avoiding the penalty that creates one.
Matt Long adds another layer of uncertainty. The starting receiver was carted to the locker room after a fourth-quarter injury, and no diagnosis or availability determination had been reported by September 7; his continued place atop the depth chart did not settle his status. If he cannot play, an almost untested passing game will have to reveal itself with an even thinner receiving group.
The other two units can keep the burden manageable
Steve Russ’s defense allowed Duquesne only 107 yards on 43 plays in his first game back as coordinator, while Max Mustell and Korey Johnson supplied interceptions. Against North Dakota State, another efficient defensive performance would matter directly to the offense. Fewer points required and favorable field position would reduce the number of obvious passing situations Air Force has to survive.
The specialist overhaul also produced something tangible. Carter Cremascoli made field goals from 21 and 52 yards plus all four PATs, while first-time punter Will Duncan averaged 56.5 yards on two punts. Those debuts eased a preseason uncertainty, and they could matter more in the compressed game that two run-oriented teams can create. Air Force does not need every drive to reach the end zone if its kicking and field-position operation travels from Week 1 to Week 2.
How much this one matters
Air Force and North Dakota State meet for the first time at 8 p.m. Mountain on Saturday at Falcon Stadium, on FS1, and the game is the Mountain West opener for both programs. The Fan Watch model gives Air Force a 43% chance to win, so a victory would be meaningful rather than routine.
The conference consequence is immediate. In the simulation branch where Air Force wins, the Falcons reach the Mountain West title game 22% of the time; in the loss branch, they do so only 6% of the time. Those are alternative outcomes from the same entering-week forecast, not stages of a projection changing over time. The broader approach is explained in the methodology.
There is no outside scoreboard result worth borrowing attention from this week. Keep the focus on whether the young option can still dictate terms when the opponent is built to resist it, and whether the defense and specialists can keep an unfinished passing game from deciding the night.