Jordan Cooke remembers the last trip to Logan from both directions. In 2023, the Idaho State quarterback threw the Bengals’ opening touchdown, and later a 47-yard pick-six. Utah State turned that afternoon into a 78-28 rout, rushing for 380 yards and returning two interceptions for touchdowns.
Cooke returns as a considerably more accomplished quarterback after passing for more than 3,000 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025. More importantly for this week, Idaho State led the Big Sky last season with 459.4 total yards and more than 300 passing yards per game while allowing the conference’s fewest sacks.
That makes Utah State’s defense, not the final margin, the honest center of this opener.
Utah State should win, so watch how it wins
Idaho State at Utah State, Saturday, Sept. 5, 5 p.m. MT on CBSSN
The Fan Watch model gives Utah State a 98% chance to win. That is permission to expect control, not an invitation to turn every early Idaho State first down into a crisis. An upset would be disastrous, but it is also extremely unlikely.
The useful tension is in the matchup. Utah State allowed 440.1 yards per game in 2025. Idaho State now brings a productive passing offense that protected its quarterback better than any other Big Sky team did last season. If the Aggies disrupt Cooke, close throwing windows and get off the field without relying on Bengals mistakes, the defense will have answered the most relevant question available in a game Utah State is heavily favored to win.
If Cooke repeatedly has clean pockets and moves Idaho State downfield, Utah State may still pull away. But that branch should feel less satisfying. The next two games are road trips to Washington and Utah, where passive coverage and an absent rush would be much harder to survive. This opener cannot prove that the defense is repaired; it can show whether the same vulnerability is still immediately visible.
Cooke gives this opener enough of a story without borrowing one from another scoreboard. The interactive Utah State guide and methodology page hold the broader model context; the telling sequence here is a clean pocket, a completed throw and what Utah State does next.
Enjoy the expected win, but let Cooke’s comfort set the alarm level for the road trips ahead. The Aggies do not need to approach 78 again. They need to make a quarterback who has outgrown the memory of his last Logan visit feel the pressure of returning.