Jake Retzlaff ran for four touchdowns and 111 yards when Tulane beat Duke last year. That was the answer then; it is unavailable now. Retzlaff departed after producing 3,168 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns and a school-record 16 rushing touchdowns by a Tulane quarterback in 2025, leaving Will Hall to replace far more than ordinary quarterback production. Tulane’s preseason competition still included Kadin Semonza, Zeon Chriss-Gremillion, Dagan Bruno and Trace Johnson.
So the best reason to believe this rematch can remain close is on the other side of the ball. Safety Jack Tchienchou returns after leading Tulane with 83 tackles, linebacker Chris Rodgers returns after making 80, and cornerback E'zaiah Shine is back after starting all 14 games and breaking up seven passes. Duke, meanwhile, lost its 2025 starting quarterback and all three starting receivers; its only returning wide-receiver letterman caught seven passes last season. That gives Tulane’s most experienced unit a concrete way to help an unsettled offense. Disrupt new passing relationships, prevent Duke from separating early and keep the new quarterback from having to chase the game.
Tulane is still the underdog. The Fan Watch model gives the Green Wave a 29% chance to win at Duke. But this is worth real hope rather than desperation. A Tulane win corresponds to a 3.8% playoff chance and an 18.4% American title-game chance, while a loss corresponds to 2.2% and 13.0%, respectively. Those are alternative outcomes, not steps in a progression.
Kickoff is Saturday, September 5, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network. Watch first for whether Tchienchou, Rodgers and Shine can make Duke’s rebuilt passing game look rebuilt. If they can, Hall’s new offense may only need to be functional, not a reproduction of Retzlaff’s four-touchdown act, to give Tulane a fourth-quarter chance.
North Texas at Indiana: root for Indiana
This is the easy secondary result. Indiana has a 96% chance to win Saturday at noon ET on FOX, and that result is worth +2.9 percentage points in Tulane’s conference-title-game odds compared with a North Texas win.
There is no direct American standings effect because this is a nonconference game. The value is informational and forward-looking. Tulane hosts North Texas in Week 12, so a clear Indiana win would signal vulnerability in a future conference opponent. Because the helpful result is already overwhelmingly likely, this deserves a score check, not much emotional investment.
The full slate and conditional branches are available in the interactive Tulane guide.