The 2023 trip to the Coliseum ended 56-28, but it was not four quarters of futility. San José State ran for 198 yards, Quali Conley gained 108 in his Spartan debut and Nick Nash caught three touchdown passes. The score said mismatch; the offense still found things worth keeping.
That is the right emotional posture for Saturday’s return. San José State plays at No. 14 USC at noon Pacific on NBC, with the Fan Watch model giving the Spartans a 2% chance to win. An upset would be unforgettable. It is not a sensible requirement for feeling encouraged afterward.
Root for a dangerous offense, not merely a respectable score
Craig Stutzmann’s Spread-and-Shred design has already produced elite passing volume, ranking fifth nationally in 2024 and eighth late in the 2025 regular season. But the quarterback who threw for 3,051 yards, Walker Eget, transferred to Duke, while 1,297-yard receiver Danny Scudero transferred to Colorado.
So the revealing question is not whether the Spartans can keep the final margin tidy. It is whether the design can still create open receivers, manageable throws and explosive chances without the two players who supplied so much of last season’s production.
Watch the shape of the possessions. Are receivers gaining separation before the quarterback has to improvise? Can San José State answer pressure with quick completions? Do promising drives produce points rather than isolated highlights? A few clean scoring possessions against this opponent would tell us more about the offense’s future than cosmetic yardage accumulated after the game has escaped.
Luke Weaver is an intriguing part of that search, though he should not be asked to prove everything in one afternoon. He completed 63 passes for 628 yards and three touchdowns in five games for Hawai‘i last season, including the winning touchdown pass in the Hawai‘i Bowl. He also joins a spring roster that added 22 transfers, seven of them from Power Four programs. This is a rebuilt supporting cast trying to establish timing in public, not a finished unit unveiling itself.
Let the upset remain the bonus
The model’s alternative outcomes capture the scale of the opportunity. A loss leaves San José State with a 4.0% modeled chance to reach the Mountain West championship game; a win raises that branch to 6.6%. Because USC is a nonconference opponent, the benefit would not come from gaining ground in the standings. It would come from the upset being powerful evidence that this Spartan team is better than its preseason strength estimate.
That makes the win enormous but unnecessary. Invest heavily in signs that can survive beyond Los Angeles; invest lightly in the final result until the Spartans give you reason to dream. There is no outside game carrying a meaningful San José State rooting interest this week, so the rest of the scoreboard can stay recreational.
USC has won all six previous meetings, every one at the Coliseum. The closest San José State has come was a 34-24 loss in 2000. Breaking that history would be the story of the weekend. More realistically, the afternoon can still show whether Spread-and-Shred belongs to a durable system rather than one departed quarterback-receiver partnership.
Explore every modeled branch in the interactive guide, or read how the probabilities are built in the methodology.