Four days separated Oklahoma State’s 2025 loss to Tulsa from Mike Gundy’s departure. Athletic director Chad Weiberg said he had expected the Cowboys to win and had not anticipated making the change before that game, making the sequence an unmistakable hinge even if it does not prove that one result alone caused the decision. Oklahoma State’s account of Weiberg’s remarks is what gives this rematch its weight.
Now Eric Morris makes his Oklahoma State debut against the same opponent, at 2:45 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPNU. This is a new regime walking directly into the last regime’s most consequential week.
Hope for a clean break, but expect a real fight
The Fan Watch model gives Oklahoma State a 46% chance to win. That makes the Cowboys a slight road underdog, not a team awaiting a ceremonial streak-breaker. A victory is entirely plausible; expecting one as proof that the rebuild has already worked would be too much.
The urgency is real because Oklahoma State finished last season 1-11 and 0-9 in the Big 12, and it arrives in Tulsa carrying an 11-game losing streak. Ending that run would not repair the larger program overnight, but it would give Morris’s tenure a clean first result where the emotional continuity is hardest to escape.
Recent history also warns against treating the matchup as predictable. Oklahoma State won 45-10 at Tulsa in 2024 for its 10th straight victory in the series; Tulsa responded with a 19-12 win in Stillwater in 2025, its first there since 1951. The proper level of investment is therefore high, but grounded. This is a genuine toss-up with much more emotional meaning than its nonconference status suggests.
Watch for something recognizable
The useful question is not whether every rebuilt piece looks finished. It is whether Oklahoma State already looks like Morris’s team.
Morris was hired after his 2025 North Texas offense led the FBS in scoring and total offense and ranked second in passing. That intended identity matters immediately because Oklahoma State’s announced roster included more than 80 newcomers and 62 incoming transfers, with only 25 players back from 2025 and just five returners who had made at least four starts.
There is some continuity inside that overhaul. 21 Cowboys had previously played for Morris at North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young. So watch for fluency more than perfection, clean operation, an offense with obvious purpose and enough composure to avoid letting the rematch’s history dictate the afternoon.
This game carries no direct Big 12 standings effect, and the rest of the weekly board offers no outside result important enough to split your attention. The full stakes here are simpler and more personal. Oklahoma State gets one coin-flip chance to stop an 11-game slide, begin the Morris era and leave Tulsa with the old collapse finally behind it.
Probabilities come from the preseason simulation; details are available in the Fan Watch methodology.