Braxton Woodson ran only 44 times and completed nine passes in 2025. Those limited chances produced 414 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but Saturday asks the senior captain to direct Navy’s offense for an entire game as its starting quarterback. His legs have already shown what they can do; now every read, pitch and passing decision belongs to him.
That makes Towson less a suspense game than an audition with a full workload. Navy has a 99% win probability when the teams kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBSSN. Root for the expected win, certainly, but spend your attention on whether the offense looks settled enough to travel.
What Navy needs to show
Woodson does not inherit last season’s cast. Blake Horvath and Alex Tecza combined for 2,102 rushing yards and 26 rushing touchdowns, while departed receiver Eli Heidenreich supplied 941 receiving yards. Navy is replacing an enormous share of the proven production behind its 2025 offense, not merely changing the player taking snaps.
The reassuring part is up front. Sean Crowley, Cam Nichols, Hoke Smith II and Malcolm Johnson return after starting on the 2025 offensive line. Phil Steele ranked the line 12th nationally and second in the American, but placed Navy’s running backs 11th and its receivers 14th within the conference. That contrast defines the viewing assignment. The blocking foundation should create opportunities, and the new ball handlers must show they can recognize and use them.
Towson offers a favorable place to begin. The Tigers allowed 171.5 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry and 28 rushing touchdowns last season. Navy should be able to establish its preferred game, so repeated confusion, poor exchanges or an inability to generate productive carries would matter more than the final margin.
There is one reason to allow for a slightly uneven opening. Navy is playing its first game, while Towson will arrive nine days after its Aug. 27 opener against Maine. The Tigers will have live repetitions and current-season film; Navy will not. A choppy first series is not a crisis. An offense still searching for command deep into the game would be harder to dismiss, especially because Navy’s next two games are American road trips to Florida Atlantic and UAB.
The best outcome, then, is not a particular point total. It is Woodson controlling the option over four quarters, the rebuilt backfield producing behind the veteran line and the passing game looking usable when Towson crowds the run. Navy is overwhelmingly likely to win. The useful question is whether it leaves Annapolis looking ready for the conference games that follow.
The one result elsewhere
Florida International at South Florida: root for Florida International
Kickoff is 7 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+. Florida International has only a 9% chance to win, so this is a low-investment upset watch rather than something Navy should expect or need.
The benefit is real but modest. An FIU victory raises Navy’s modeled chance of reaching the American title game to 22.6%, compared with 20.6% if South Florida wins, a +2.0 percentage-point impact. This would not alter the conference standings because South Florida is playing a nonconference game. It would instead make an American competitor look more vulnerable than the model currently expects.
So root for FIU if the score stays interesting, but do not organize the evening around it. Navy’s important information will already have arrived through Woodson’s decisions and the rebuilt offense’s first sustained work.
The full set of weekly outcomes is available in the interactive Navy guide, with an explanation of the simulation and impact calculations on the methodology page.