Gunner Stockton will scan formations Saturday as the familiar piece in an unsettled picture. He started all 14 games last season and accounted for 34 touchdowns; the question is which receivers begin to look like his receivers.
Georgia lost Zachariah Branch, Dillon Bell, Noah Thomas and Colbie Young, and the remaining young receivers were still competing for vacated touches after six August practices. Against Tennessee State, root for more than catches. Look for separation, yards after the catch and repeated trust from Stockton in useful situations. One explosive play against an enormous mismatch does not establish the order. Several well-timed targets might begin to.
Tennessee State at No. 3 Georgia kicks off Saturday at 3 p.m. ET on SECN+. Georgia has a 99.9% win probability, so suspense is not the honest attraction. The Tigers will arrive after opening against Jackson State on August 29, while this is Georgia’s season opener. That experience gives Tennessee State a small readiness advantage and gives Georgia current film to study, but it does not make the result a serious toss-up.
The useful rooting interest is a receiver hierarchy beginning to take shape without being mistaken for finished work. Georgia gets Tennessee State and Western Kentucky at home before beginning a nine-game SEC schedule at Arkansas on September 19. This is the first half of the development window. Enjoy the auditions; reserve judgment.
The national board: four long-shot upsets
Every helpful outside result is an upset with a probability of 11% or lower. None is something Georgia needs. Treat these as bonus outcomes worth checking, not reasons to surrender the afternoon. The percentages below come from alternative modeled branches. They show what Georgia’s outlook would be if the preferred team wins versus if the favorite wins.
Boise State at Oregon: root for Boise State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Boise State has a 7% chance, and the upset is worth +2.7 percentage points in Georgia’s first-round-bye odds, 35.8% with a Boise State win versus 33.2% with an Oregon win. The mechanism is national top-seed competition. Removing a highly ranked contender helps Georgia’s bye path, without affecting the SEC standings.
Texas State at Texas: root for Texas State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Texas State has a 10% chance, and the upset is worth +2.4 percentage points in Georgia’s SEC title-game odds, 48.8% if Texas State wins versus 46.3% if Texas wins. This would not hand Texas a conference loss; it would be a vulnerability signal from another SEC contender.
Washington State at Washington: root for Washington State
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET on NBC. Washington State has an 11% chance, and the upset is worth +1.7 percentage points in Georgia’s playoff odds, 74.6% with the upset versus 72.9% with a Washington win. This is simply about thinning the national playoff competition.
Wisconsin at Notre Dame: root for Wisconsin
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Wisconsin has a 5% chance, and the upset is worth +2.7 percentage points in Georgia’s first-round-bye odds, 35.9% if Wisconsin wins versus 33.2% if Notre Dame wins. It is the week’s least likely helpful outcome, but it would remove another major top-seed threat.
The full set of outcomes is in the interactive Georgia guide, with an explanation of the simulation and impact calculations in the methodology.