The number to carry into this rematch is 307-64. Auburn rushed for 307 yards in last season’s 38-24 win, while Baylor managed 64, an imbalance stark enough to obscure the Bears’ 419 passing yards and 483-415 advantage in total offense.
That is the Week 1 question in its cleanest form. Can Baylor keep Auburn from controlling the game on the ground again?
Rooting interest: Baylor’s rebuilt front
Baylor did not answer last year’s defensive problems with continuity. Joe Klanderman arrived from Kansas State to run and call the defense, freeing Dave Aranda from the play-calling role he held in 2025. That is a real transfer of authority, not a cosmetic title change.
The personnel response was just as targeted. With few defensive-line returners, Baylor added defensive tackles Jamaal Whyce Jr., Kamren Washington and Hosea Wheeler, defensive ends Zavion Hardy and Daemian Wimberly, and edge rushers Ryan Davis and Garrick Ponder.
So watch the ordinary early downs. Does Baylor force second-and-long? Can the front close lanes without requiring desperate help from the secondary? Does Auburn have to earn its drives through the air instead of repeatedly choosing the easiest answer? A few explosive runs would hurt, but the more revealing danger is steady ground-game control that dictates down, distance and possession.
This is also where hope needs calibration. The Fan Watch model gives Baylor a 29% chance to win. An upset is plausible enough to invest in, but Auburn is still the clear favorite. Baylor does not need to dominate the line from the opening snap for the defensive reconstruction to look credible. It does need to prevent last year’s defining mismatch from simply reappearing.
Let the offense have a fair game
The point of watching the front is not to ignore Baylor’s offense. It is to see whether the defense can give that offense a game it can actually win. Last year, Baylor accumulated more yardage than Auburn, but the rushing split left the Bears playing against the opponent’s preferred terms.
If Baylor can make Auburn sustain drives and produce a few obvious passing situations, the night becomes much more interesting. If Auburn again lives in comfortable downs and drains possessions on the ground, even a productive Baylor offense may be asked to compensate for too much.
That distinction matters more than demanding an instant defensive masterpiece. One opener cannot establish that Klanderman’s defense is fixed. It can show whether the changes in authority and personnel have reached the exact place where the previous meeting got away from Baylor.
How much of your Saturday does this need?
Baylor and Auburn kick off at 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC. The game is a neutral-site matchup in Atlanta rather than an Auburn home game; it will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as the Aflac Kickoff Game.
Spend the afternoon watching whether Baylor can force Auburn to solve a different problem than last year. Enjoy the upset chance, but judge the afternoon first by whether Baylor can deny Auburn the answer that worked so comfortably last year.
The full set of probabilities is in the interactive Baylor guide, with details on the simulation in the methodology.