Ness Davis gives Air Force’s opener a more useful purpose than merely watching a 97% favorite handle its business. The Duquesne senior returns after rushing for 927 yards at 6.4 per carry in 2025. He is the first opponent-specific check on whether the Falcons’ defensive finish last year can become their normal level in 2026.
Kickoff is Saturday, September 5, at 11 a.m. Mountain time on MW+.
Watch the run defense closely
Air Force allowed 20.7 points and 349.7 yards per game over its final six games of 2025. During the 1-5 start, those figures were 40.0 points and 496.7 yards. Nearly halving the scoring allowance is the strongest concrete reason to believe a rebound from 4-8 is possible.
Steve Russ is back as defensive coordinator after holding that job at UAB in 2025. The Air Force graduate also coordinated the Falcons’ defense for four seasons from 2012 through 2017. His familiarity makes the transition less mysterious, but it does not answer the important question. Can his unit reproduce the standard Air Force reached late last season?
Davis makes that question visible. Do not demand that Air Force erase every productive run; a proven back will win a few snaps. Look instead for whether the Falcons control early downs, prevent his steady gains from becoming long possessions and force Duquesne to build offense through less-established options.
That last part matters because Duquesne must replace quarterback Tyler Riddell, who threw 26 touchdown passes in 2025. The Dukes also lost receiver Joey Isabella after a 63-catch, 13-touchdown season. If Davis keeps them out of obvious passing situations, Air Force will have learned less than the final score suggests. If the Falcons bottle him up and make the rebuilt passing game carry the afternoon, the defense will have done exactly what this matchup asks of it.
Keep the emotional investment measured
This should feel like a controlled examination, not a tense scoreboard watch. The Fan Watch model gives Air Force a 97% win probability, so an ordinary victory is the expectation rather than a breakthrough. The payoff is seeing whether the defense looks structurally ready for harder assignments.
There is no secondary result worth borrowing attention for this week. The slate offers no outside game with a meaningful Air Force rooting impact, which leaves room to evaluate this opener on its own terms. The probabilities come from the site’s 50,000-season simulation methodology.
There is one nice bit of texture. This will be the programs’ first meeting after a scheduled Duquesne visit to Falcon Stadium in 2020 was canceled. Six years later, Davis finally carries the ball into that matchup, and directly into the first examination of Air Force’s best reason for defensive optimism.